Well, when I stated back on August 7 that I observed “cracks” in the markets and market weakness ahead, and made my move to G-Fund (and advising my subscriber base), who would have thought that 8 weeks later the markets would have taken such negative hits like this week. I made multiple, repeated, posts, since August 7, reaffirming my concerns of market weakness and desire to remain in the G-Fund, and this week is the perfect example of its role as a “safety cover and concealment” tool. Some readers “grew bored” in G-Fund and returned to stock funds, which, I can understand, but those who remained in G-Fund have seen zero, none, no damage to their accounts.
Bloomberg News is reporting that the SP 500 index has had its worse week in 2 years, and the Dow Jones Index has erased all 2014 gains. Just, wow.
Watching this from the G-Fund is like watching a train wreck. Far enough so you don’t get hit by flying debris but close enough to see and hear the crash. Sadly, I don’t think the train wreck is even fully going yet. My crystal-ball (never really has ever worked, but…) is telling me “Mid-November” may be the start of the real pain.
The “other sites” (you know, the ones with no apparent owner, just some mysterious people who type stuff, or whose physical address is a Mail Boxes Etc. store) continue to advocate stock allocations instead of the G-Fund. Good Luck with that. Remember, I look at things mostly from a price/volume and “behavior” perspective, not one day this, one day that. I look at the overall “animal” called the market and make my decisions that way. Don’t be swayed by one day “up days.” We had “the strongest day in 2014” on Oct 8.
That didn’t last long. A dying dog can give one more hard kick before the lights go out.
I remain 100% G-Fund…I try not to reach out and catch falling knives. The Fed Trader has been the only site to discuss the importance of G-Fund, as early as August 7, remaining safe in the G-Fund since that date.
Everybody have a good weekend, and if anyone (and their TSP balance) could benefit from the discussion and commentary on this site, please share it with them.
Thanks ! Take care
– Bill Pritchard
