Hello Everybody
An update that the S-Fund has been declared by TSP.gov to be the top performer in March. In a challenging investing climate, this was the only stock fund with positive returns. All other stock funds were negative.
https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/monthly/monthlyReturns.shtml
http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2015/04/tsp-has-slow-march/109072/?oref=river
It would look bad to “take credit” for being right, but the fact remains that I was in this fund the entire month, as were many subscribers.
Screen shot is below:
Regarding the market, trading on April 1 (first day of the second quarter….”first days” are important from a set-the-tone standpoint) was difficult indeed, with the Dow Jones index closing down 77 points. My benchmark index, the SP 500, hit a low of 2048 then closed at 2059.69; round it to 2060 and that is fine for our purposes. Remember that the 2040 level is something to keep an eye on. In addition,writers at marketwatch.com are basically repeating what I have already told my subscribers multiple times regarding the market and various technical levels.
I want to discuss another “tool” in my toolbox, and while this may sound like Greek and be clear as mud, I am going to discuss it anyway. Based on some reader emails, the subscribers enjoy my charts and methods, and have desired additional material. So let’s get started…
The overhead resistance level (since the most recent uptrend peaked out late February) is 2120 and the support level is 2040, for the SP 500 Index. This is a “spread” (for lack of better term) of 80 points (2120-2040=80).
So the “mid-point” between these levels (40 up and 40 down) is 2080. Due to the increased volatility and uneasiness in the markets, we must utilize additional tools to determine behavior, so lets use the 2080 level as the short-term barometer regarding “health” of things. If the SP 500 has activity above 2080, that is positive, as this means it will hopefully continue towards 2120 and break-thru the 2120 level. Activity below 2080 is not desired, and as it moves closer to 2040, then it is time to become even more concerned. See chart with poor graphics:
This method can be used to answer the question “On a short term basis, does anybody have any clue on the short-term trend ?” Or from an operational perspective, if the SP 500 has 2 weeks of closes at 2095 versus two weeks at 2055, by using the 2080 level, we know that 2095, while not 2120, is not entirely bad and we probably don’t need to completely panic. Etc scenarios. The above method can assist with this.
In summary, I remain 100% S-Fund. SP 500: 2040 is support, 2120 is resistance, and 2080 is our short-term barometer.
Thanks for reading and talk to you soon….
– Bill Pritchard
