Good Evening
My crystal ball at 10:30 PM Central Time on 11-08 is predicting a Donald Trump win for our next President. This is due to:
- Hillary narrowly won Virginia, with 48% versus Donald 46%. I consider this narrow because Hillary’s VP, Tim Kaine, is former mayor of Richmond, the capital, is a former Governor of the State, and a former US Congressman from the State. You would think that Virginia would have been a “done deal” for her yet DT almost snatched it from her. I consider this important as it likely represents the sentiment nationwide, regarding a desire for change. If he can almost take Virginia, he can own most anything else.
- Donald is on track to win Florida, yes narrowly but in light of all of Donald’s tough talk on immigration policies and the anti-DT energy by the Latino community, this is commendable that he was able to seize Florida. Again, if he can “pull this off” then his power has previously underestimated. Note: not declared official win yet.
- North Carolina and Ohio, believed to be critical for Hillary, just went DT.
- He is pulling this off by himself. Hillary has Obama and ex-POTUS Bill Clinton (basically two Presidents) on her team who have been out cheerleading for her. Yet DT is still able to perform.
In sum: I anticipate Donald Trump as our next US President. The overnight futures markets (we saw financial markets celebrate a no-criminal prosecution on Hillary a few days ago) reacted violently, with Dow Jones Futures moving down 600 points. The world financial markets are clearly worried by a DT victory, and his strong stances on various issues. See chart:
Recall that on Nov-2, I posted my TSP change over to G-Fund, out of an abundance of caution. Six days later, we are in an election where the “underdog” has (so far) knocked it out of the park. Additional volatility is expected, as is a possible last minute surprise Hillary comeback, although I doubt it. Again, my move to G-Fund was out of caution, and dare I say it, I am rarely wrong or incorrect with market calls. Here we are, yet again, with storm clouds and heavy rain looming ahead, and I sought shelter early.
There are other TSP analysis sites out there, both free and paid, my opinion is those sites have been very reckless and irresponsible advocating anything but G-Fund in such a volatile period, with obvious market signals of a downtrend. Maybe obvious to me, but not them. “It is just a paper loss” is only heard when they lose money, however when the same sites magically cause a gain to happen [even a broken clock is correct twice a day], you never hear that it was a “paper gain.” No, that is never heard. We have a lot of smart subscribers here, many who have been with me for years, use your sound judgement when you come across those other sites and snake oil salesmen.
Will the markets come back ? Sure, they “always do” as many like to say, many even remind me this. “Always do” however carries an unknown timeline to it. They may come back next week, or next year. I am unwilling to catch falling knives or ride in cars that are flying off cliffs.
I remain 100% G-Fund until further notice. Thanks for reading !
-Bill Pritchard
