Hello Folks
Well, unfortunately yet again I have more bad, versus good, news to report. This most recent market week, March 6 to March 10, was basically a disaster. Lets take a look at some Dow Jones Index losses:
03-07: 570 Point loss
03-09: 543 Point loss
03-10: 448 Point loss
Again, by now we all know (at least the readers of this site know…) the challenges facing the market: rising Interest rates, inflation (not the same thing, but close cousins), and consumer sentiment. The dead horse has been beaten enough, I am not going to kick it anymore, those are the meat and potatoes “why” the market is down. The sudden collapse of SVB Bank probably didn’t help the mood on Wall Street either.
Lets look at some charts, keep an eye on the increased volume which is consistent with “distribution” or selling by major institutions:
Some often watched indicators, by stock market analysts, and your amateur analyst here, include:
- S&P 500 is below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a bearish signal
- Volume has been increasing, reflecting distribution
- 3750 is the new support area
So that is about all I have this post, short and sweet. I remain (shock) 100% G-Fund. For those who have been following the TSP Funds closely,the G-Fund was the only fund to have a positive performance for 2022. That is right, the only one. A paltry 2.98%, but you don’t need to be a Wharton Finance Phd or a MIT math professor to realize anything positive is better than anything negative. Basic math. How did “the other sites” do last year? I don’t know, I thankfully just listen to me. However I can say that if we count the L-Fund (and do not count all the L-20XX funds), we have six fund choices to be in (not counting whatever mutual funds in the “new TSP” mutual fund window offerings). How was I in the G-Fund the entire time? The boring G-Fund? How many times have I said that I believe it is important to protect against loss?
Wait- the G Fund is subject to the possibility that your investment will not grow enough to offset the reduction in purchasing power that results from inflation. I don’t make that claim, that is cut and pasted from the TSP site.
In exchange for the boredom of the G-Fund, we get safety and security. A year is probably longer than I would like to be in the G-Fund, and NO, I do not suggest anyone do a 30 year federal career in the G-Fund, but it does offer some, well, positives, gains being one of them.
So how did I obtain a positive return in 2022? Was it by day trading my TSP? No. Was it by chasing returns and trying to buy the low, and sell the high? No. As a matter of fact (and I am making a point here), I made NO TRADES all of 2022. ZERO TRADES. You could even go as far to say I was “in it for the long haul” in 2022. Did I say zero trades? The TSP is NOT meant to “trade” by the way. “Market timing?” (an evil concept). The only market timing I did in 2022 was 12 months of time out of the markets.
So how is this done? This is not done by witchcraft, hocus-pocus, guessing, etc. These results come from putting in the time, and the effort. Everyday. And turning off the outside noise from the numerous websites run by “experts” who are happy to tell you why their method is best. News flash: The G-Fund is part of the TSP plan. Am I in the G-Fund when the market is screaming to the moon? No. Am I in the G-Fund when the world is ending? Yes. I have 55 disclaimers on this free, no charge site that I am not an investment advisor, what you do with your money is your choice, and that I am merely sharing what I do with my TSP, and sharing my opinions regarding what is moving the markets.
With that said, who do you trust as a source of information regarding the markets? Please complete the on-going poll below, if not already completed when it was originally posted in November 2022.
Final comment: If you have not made money in the markets (or minimized your losses) in the last two years, you need a new investment advisor. If the “expert” you listen to or website you follow has not made their readers money (or minimized their losses), that website or expert needs to get a new job. If that website told you to “hang in there, it always comes back” in the S-Fund for 2022, you just had a –26% return in your TSP. You now need a +35.1% return just to recover that loss. Positive 35.1 percent. Just to get back to even.
Please complete the following poll if not already done so:
https://take.quiz-maker.com/poll4595721xC9dD40b9-144
Thank you for reading, and please share with your friends and colleagues. Note: If the images in this website are blocked by your email program, please navigate to the main page at https://www.thefedtrader.com/
-Bill Pritchard
