Category Archives: Uncategorized

As most are aware by now, both the Senate and the House have agreed to raising the debt limit and opening the federal government.   This shutdown was the second longest (I believe) in history, with the longest one being three full weeks, under Bill Clinton.

Thankfully, the Tea Party / Ted Cruz et al. did not throw any wrenches into this, and it was passed, and before the Oct 17 deadline.  No last minute hiccups, and the power did not go out in DC tonight prompting the House to cancel the vote. 

The Asian markets responded well to this, with the Japan Nikkei 225 Index going up 160 points.  SP 500 Futures are somewhat flat, which is surprising, but they are not down, so I am happy about that.  The last couple of days the markets have closed higher each day (as many of you have reminded me…) albeit on reduced volume, indicating that folks were not jumping into the pool head first but sticking one foot into the water at a time to test things out.

The CR will fund the federal government until Jan 15 2014, getting agencies (and their employees) thru the major holidays.   The debt ceiling is raised until February 7 2014. 

Based on the overwhelming positive news regarding the Debt Ceiling agreement, which was really the only thing lingering in the skies over the markets, and the impossibility (now) that a last minute problem would trip things up, I am returning to 100% S-Fund.   My review of past market days and analysis reflects that S-Fund has a high probability of strong returns for the time being.  Asian market’s positive response to this reflects they are obviously pleased that some stability is back, as Asia owns a lot of US debt and they have a lot on the line regarding the Debt Ceiling.  I also plan to adjust my personal stock portfolio to reflect long/buy holdings which would benefit from a new uptrend.

Six trading days have passed since my October 8 posting regarding my move to G-Fund.   Now that the markets are apparently on the path upward, I would not nickel and dime yourselves over six days of not being in the stock funds.  Let’s conduct an honest self-reflection:  a lack of agreement on this debt ceiling would have been a bloodbath, and by being in G-Fund, we were safely tucked into bed under our blankets, with no risk exposure.  If you can minimize your losses, the gains will take care of themselves. And if you have subscribed to this site, you likely have been in the one fund out of ten that was the top performer.  This does not happen by magic or lucky guesses.  Please note that the YTD best performing fund, per the TSP site, has been the S-Fund, and this site (and to my knowledge, no other site, to include the paid subscription sites) has kept people in the S-Fund almost the entire time, with a few short-lived jumps to G-Fund along the way.  Thank you for the interest, and you can count on the accurate and unmatched market analysis to continue.

Thanks everybody

– Bill Pritchard

No, that headline is not a typo or some sort of computer error resulting in a reprint of yesterday’s headline.   It is, well, now, 24 hours later, October 15, at 11:30 PM EDT, and shockingly (or not so…?) we have no Debt Ceiling Deal.  I might add that the discussion to re-open the government apparently is no longer the hot topic, it is the Debt Ceiling, which has received all the attention in the last 24-48 hours.

That’s right folks, tomorrow is October 16 and 1)  No debt agreement has been reached and 2) Any such agreement must pass both the House and Senate, 3) Both of which must occur ideally before 00:01 HRS on Oct 17. 

As noted earlier, some say Oct 17 is symbolic and not a “hard” date, others say Oct 17 but no set time (COB?), others have said Oct 17 is just hocus pocus make believe.   By the way some of the hocus-pocus group are grown adults and elected politicians (Yes, I am scared too).  I am taking the conservative approach and calling it one minute into Oct 17 as the deadline.   Various TV commentators (CNN, FOX, etc.) are now stating that having things resolved by Oct 17 is basically impossible and to expect a “weekend resolution.”  I am sure the ratings agencies and the world leaders, some who own some of our debt, will like that….

I wonder what would happen if my supervisor or the prosecutor told me “have this ready for trial by Date ABC”, as serious and grave consequences could occur if I did not comply.   Then I made excuses and pointed fingers at others when my inability to make this deadline became apparent.   I wonder what would happen if I told these folks “well, the date you gave me [Treasury Secretary Lew stated Oct 17 was a critical deadline] is just something you made up, I am not going to abide by it.”  Or maybe I told them “I am working hard on the deadline, but will get back to you, by the way, I am happy with my own progress”.   Or “I have determined that something else is more important, not your deadline.”  

I wonder what my eval that year would look like ?   My career potential after that ?  My reputation ?  I wonder how many cool TDY’s I would get in the future ?   Maybe a PCS move to Eagle Pass Texas ? Etc.

So then, the question is, What is the USA’s reputation looking like, on the global scale ?

Enough soapboxing….

Some news shows have just now started to talk about “damage to 401ks” (the TSP is our version of the 401k) and how this will get voter’s attention, resulting in some politicians losing future elections.   Fitch Ratings agency has come out and basically stated that the bickering back and forth between parties, and subsequent uncertainty, has caused Fitch to have their trigger finger ready to downgrade USA’s credit rating.

Today, the Dow Jones closed down 133 points.   However I do not track the Dow, I prefer the SP 500.   The Dow is only 30 companies.   If one or two of them cough wrong, it affects the entire index.   But news outlets and the general public watch the Dow (more so than they should, but…) and thus anytime the “Dow down 133” flashes across the screen, it is never healthy for sentiment.    As I discussed in yesterdays post, yes, the Dow closed UP the last few days but as a pretty bright guy in my office told me today (as he shook his head…), he said there was no way he would chase a 5% gain if he might loose 50% during the chase.   Pretty well said.   As stated previously, depending on when you logged into the TSP site and processed your request, many folks got some gains on the way out, anyway.

On another note, I am 100% G-Fund until the market itself tells me that it is time to return to the stock funds, which by the way, will almost for sure not happen until this debt ceiling stuff is resolved.   Yesterday’s post may have miscommunicated that I am 100% G-Fund, and that once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, I am then immediately returning to the stock funds.   This is not what I intended to communicate and I apologize for any confusion.   Legit question by the way, a few folks emailed me that question.

That is all for now folks, to recap, there is no debt ceiling agreement yet, and I am 100% G-Fund until further advised.   Thanks everybody.

– Bill Pritchard

Hello everybody

Well, to say that I had an “uptick” in email activity from my now extensive (and very loyal) subscriber base would be an understatement.   I have been cranking out email replies since my Oct 8 post regarding my move to G-Fund.   The underlying theme of most of these emails is “I wonder if we should go back to the S-Fund, we missed some gains”.     Which is a valid question.   Allow me to discuss this and some other topics further.   Also, let me state that I enjoy these emails and they indicate that my postings are being closely followed, which is the best affirmation this site and I could ever get.  

As I have stated in prior posts, G-Fund is not for gains, but for safety and protection.  In times of “storm clouds”, G-Fund is the storm shelter.  And right now, in my opinion, we have storm clouds, with both the government being shut down, and the looming Oct-17 debt ceiling deadline.  Trying to grab the last rays of sunshine while storms approach is a dangerous strategy and something I do not support.  Observe that it is 11:30 PM in Washington DC, and nothing has been agreed on yet.

On October 8, I discussed my TSP Allocation which would be 100% G-Fund.  My TSP request did not take affect until October 10.   This means that my account likely obtained some gains on October 9, and possibly some on October 10, which were “up days” in the markets.   Others who elected to move to G-Fund, assuming the allocation change was initiated on October 9, likely obtained some gains while awaiting the change, as every day since October 8 were positive days.    Now, Oct 14, many are likely G-Fund.    My point is this, as we headed for the exits, we likely obtained some gains on the way out.  

Lets take a look at the SP 500 Index over the last few days.   See chart below, with comments.

As can be seen, the pre-weekend trading days were mostly average to slightly above average volume, indicating optimism that a deal would be reached.  Post-weekend, volume was lighter.  Yes the indexes physically went up, but the volume is the story behind the move.   Like most of my subscribers, I have hoped for a deal (yes, my paycheck is affected also…), and over the entire weekend, have seen the following terms used:

“We are having a discussion”

“Progress is being made”

“We are at the table”

“We are close”

One thing I have yet to see is

“We have a deal/agreement”

Based on public news media reporting, any Senate agreement must clear the House also.  Some media outlets have expressed concern that Senator Ted Cruz and the Tea Party may try to derail any Senate agreements.  Some news organizations, Bloomberg News in particular, have now come out and said that we are at the point that even if agreement occurs now, it may not be possible to have everything rubber stamped and signed off by Oct 17.  Mind you, tomorrow is Oct 15.   Some say midnight on Oct 17, some say not, some say Oct 17 is merely symbolic and even others say the debt ceiling is a concept invented by Obama’s team and is all make-believe, like Santa’s helpers and the Easter Bunny.  Even others say the US “can’t” default.  “Can’t ?”   Be careful.   Anything can happen.  Long story short, my ability to sleep soundly has improved greatly since moving to G-Fund.   Did I miss some gains ?  Probably yes.   Did I miss the chance for the markets to dangerously crash and hurt my TSP balance while this process is worked out ?  Yes, absolutely.

Guys, my balance is 100% G-Fund for the reasons outlined above.   I think trying to “grab some gains” is playing with fire.    Now, if the market triples this week while yours truly sits in G-Fund, well I owe you an adult beverage.  

However, until the budget/debt ceiling deal is signed, sealed, and delivered, and double-confirmed, I am 100% G-Fund. 

Remember, in investing (and life), the greater the risk, the greater the reward.   Less risk, less reward.   Money stashed under your mattress ?   Zero risk, zero reward.   Trying to “play” the debt ceiling ?   Potential huge reward, also huge risk.   The question to ask yourself:  Is your TSP balance worth it ?   I know some fresh air would be nice, but do we really want to roll the windows down on our armored car right now ?     

Hope everyone is doing well and lets keep our fingers crossed that this is resolved soon.  

– Bill Pritchard

I promised to advise you if the market “hiccupped” wrong and today it did.   All the indexes sold off and closed lower, on above average volume.   This fact, coupled with the ongoing news (the markets action itself is enough justification to make me go to G-Fund) between both parties prompts this decision.   I am concerned that any “agreements” formed prior to Oct 17, may fall apart at the last hour.  As discussed in yesterday’s post, as this drags on, our overall reputation is at risk and this may be enough to send the markets further lower, even if we do get a last minute debt ceiling agreement.  I wonder if Obama’s speech writer read my post last night…

It should be noted that on Thursday Oct 10, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will testify before Congress regarding the debt ceiling.   This may go well, it may go bad.

With that said, as of this evening October 8, 2013, I will be 100% G-Fund in my TSP Account, reflected via Contribution Allocation and Interfund Transfer.

The TSP site posts the S-Fund’s return YTD as being 27%.   The S-Fund is the top performer on a YTD basis, and this site has advocated S-Fund almost the entire time.  While we were not in the S-Fund the entire year, have taken some protective moves into G-Fund earlier in the year, my point is that let’s take some of our gains and keep what we have. 

Again, I am now 100% G-Fund in my personal account and my opinion is that this is the prudent move, in light of the market’s behavior and overall political climate which exists.   You may see some “uptick” days over the next week or two but my opinion is that the safety of G-Fund is best for now.

Thank you for reading…

– Bill Pritchard

Good Evening everybody

Well, it is October 7 and we are in shutdown mode with no budget agreement in place, and face a rapidly approaching Oct 17 debt ceiling deadline.   If you read the news reports (and lets admit, some fear mongering by both parties is going on…) , one would believe that the world is going to end if the debt ceiling is not raised.  

In the end, what the market does is what matters most, not opinion, emotion, or crystal-balling the future.  Or TV interviews of politicians from either party.   In the end, the market is going to do what it is going to do, so lets just go straight to the market and take a look.  Lets take a look at the SP 500 charts since Oct 1, a key milestone reflecting the new Fiscal Year, a term most of us are familiar with.   

The chart above, with my comments, shows the SP 500 Index over the last few weeks, and it is fairly obvious that the index has been mostly flat, on average to below average volume, since Oct 1.   It should be noted that on Oct 1, the index went up, not down, and then entered a listless sideways mode on average to below average volume.  I discussed the prior government shutdowns on this site, and received some emails (and good for my subscribers for being engaged) on what would happen on Oct 1 2013, versus what happened before.  In the end, history tends to repeat itself and this shutdown was no different.  

Which brings me to a more serious concern.  It can be argued (and I am entering the realm of speculation which I promised myself I would avoid) that this shutdown is “different” than prior shutdowns, because this shutdown, coupled with a debt ceiling violation (we have no debt ceiling modification prior to the ceiling being hit, expected to occur Oct 17), is a dangerous cocktail for the markets and the economy.  Our reputation on a global scale is in question (“look at those clowns over there” etc. etc.), and a failure to make payments on our obligations would most likely result in a downgrade by ratings agencies.  This could be an additional reputational problem on the global scale for our country.  Again, I am speculating and I promised not to do that.  But you probably can see where I am coming from. 

Lets take a look at a slightly longer term chart of the SP 500, below, in which I have placed channel lines to show the recent downtrend since mid Sept.  See comments on chart.

In summary, I am still 100% S-Fund, however I am watching things extremely closely.   I am not waiting until Oct 17 to make any TSP Allocation changes, and trust me, if the markets merely hiccup wrong, I will advise everyone.   However, with that said, there have been no sell offs or major down days, and my opinion is that there is no evidence to push me out of S-Fund at the present time.  

Thank you for reading….

– Bill Pritchard

Good Evening Folks

Well, the clock is ticking and we are less than one hour until midnight Washington DC time.   Public news reports reflect that no agreement has occurred, and thus it is my responsibility to advise you of my opinion regarding the shutdown and its affect on the markets and ultimately our TSP funds.   Note that I have received multiple emails on this topic, I am not ignoring you, but this post should touch on most questions posed in those emails.

Let us observe that the last shutdown was in 1996, which lasted three weeks.   This is still fresh in my memory, as this occurred while I was a young Border Patrol Agent.  I recall being at “muster” (roll call for some other departments), and learning about the shutdown and what would happen.  Flash forward to 2013, and we have another shutdown looming, less than one hour away.

While the markets did sell off today, 09-30-2013, this was mostly panic selling in my opinion and not reflective of bigger problems with the economy.   Anyone who thinks the economy is still bad should try to travel via airline, as every seat is filled with both business and tourist travelers.  Let’s take a look at the SP 500 charts during the 1995-1995 time frame.   As a point of reference, we had one shutdown Nov 14-19, 1995, and another one Dec 16 1995 until Jan 6 1996 (what a great way to celebrate the holidays) .

The chart above shows the SP 500 index during the Nov 1995 time frame.  The index barely hiccupped and went up the entire month.

This chart, above, shows the SP 500 index during the longest shutdown in history, lasting Dec 16 1995 to Jan 6 1996.  As can be seen, the index was mostly flat in December (not completely abnormal, the markets tend to be quiet anyway due to the holidays), then went down in early January (as traders returned from the holidays), then went up strongly once the shutdown was resolved.  OBSERVATION:  the markets did not “crash hard” nor did the world end because of the shutdowns.   Granted, in 1996, the NASDAQ and other indexes were going up like bottle rockets, and possibly this prevented any negative responses to the shutdown. 

The chart above is a longer term view, displaying most of 1995 to 1996, allowing the viewer to see the overall behavior of the index.   As my notes on the charts indicate, at no point during the shutdown dates did the SP 500 index come close to touching the 100-day EMA, and only broke the 50-day EMA during the Jan 1996 timeframe.   Once the shutdown ended on Jan 6 1996, the markets went back up.   OBSERVATION:  Any behavior BELOW the 100-day EMA is a warning sign however a potential breakage of the 50-day EMA must be looked at with history in mind.   It may not (or may be) a sign of worse things ahead.

As an aside, the SP 500 futures, chart below, are trading up, versus down, which is interesting, in light of the shutdown occurring in less than 30 minutes.

SUMMARY:  I remain in S-Fund and my opinion is we should watch how things play out.   With history displayed above, we can panic a little less due to the shutdown.   I will try to react to the market itself, and will not try to out-guess it, and if the market flashes red flags, then I will move to G-Fund.   Yes, I have been wrong before.   However, again, with history lessons of the past in my mind, and a close eye on things everyday, I am not panicking.    Yet…..

As always, thank you for reading and if you find this site useful or informative, please share it with your friends and coworkers.

– Bill Pritchard

Mr. Dan Jamison / FERS GUIDE emailed this out today 09-20-2013, and I am cut and pasting it here, as it contains important Roth TSP information.  Mr. Jamison’s expertise is in retirement benefits and tax information.  It is important that my readers and subscribers be heads-up on this.   Mr. Jamison produced and authored all content entirely himself.

Hi Folks,

Many of you are probably unaware of the serious pitfalls you will encounter if you opt to contribute to the Roth TSP.   For a federal law-enforcement officer or firefighter, the Roth TSP is a poor choice.  It wasn’t until this week that a reader posed a question to me that caused me to realize what a bad idea the Roth TSP is for many of us.

The idea behind the Roth TSP is that you contribute after-tax monies and when you withdraw funds from the account in retirement, the earnings are tax-free.  The trick here is that that the withdrawal must be a “qualified withdrawal” for the earnings to be tax-free.  In order for the withdrawal to be considered a “qualified withdrawal” by the IRS, “five years must have passed since January 1 of the calendar year when you made your first Roth TSP contribution AND you are at least 59½, permanently disabled (or deceased).“

Here’s the problem: As a law-enforcement officer or firefighter, you can retire as early as 50 years of age and are mandatorily-retired at age 57.  If you decide to take post-retirement withdrawals from the TSP (under the life-expectancy option or the age-55 exemption) you will not meet the age test for the Roth TSP withdrawal to be considered “qualified.”  (You may also not meet the 5-year rule as the Roth TSP has only been an option since May 2012.)  Since your withdrawal is not “qualified,” you will be taxed on the portion of your withdrawal that represents the attributable earnings.  This eliminates the tax-advantaged nature of the Roth TSP.  You’d be just as well off having a regular post-tax investment account outside of the TSP.  You’re contributing after-tax dollars and paying taxes on the earnings generated by the post-tax investment.

The TSP will not allow you to specify that your post-retirement withdrawals come only from your Traditional TSP balance, nor will the TSP allow you to roll-over/transfer out only the Roth TSP portion of your account.  When you make any withdrawal from the TSP, the withdrawn amount will be taken ratably from both your Traditional and Roth balances under TSP rules.

If you roll-over/transfer both your Traditional TSP and Roth TSP to another custodian, then you lose your eligibility under the age-55 exemption, as that requires the funds to be left in your employer-sponsored account.  If you retire between age 50 and 59½, at retirement, you could roll-over/transfer your Traditional TSP and Roth TSP to another custodian and withdraw only the funds that came from the Traditional TSP account using an IRS Section 72(t) withdrawal plan and wait until age 59½ to start to withdraw the portion that came from the Roth TSP funds.

Please consider these facts when deciding if the Roth TSP is right for you.  If you already jumped into the Roth TSP, you can always stop and change your contributions to be 100% Traditional TSP and limit the tax damage.

Even folks who aren’t covered under the special provisions get affected by these rules if they retire at their MRA.

Dan Jamison
FERSGUIDE, LLC

Good evening….I wanted to update everyone that tonight’s electronic trading of equity indexes (E-Mini SP 500 and E-Mini D0w) have shown significant gains over the prior session.  These are traded worldwide, electronically, and are open for trading beginning Sunday evening, then 24 hours each day, until Friday evening, when they stop trading until Sunday evening.   Sunday behavior is usually good “intel” on how Monday’s regular stock markets will behave.  I have the sick habit of checking them every Sunday night, which determines if I lie awake all night in a cold sweat due to nervousness, or if I sleep soundly with a smile.  Tonight I will have a smile.

E-Mini SP 500 Futures are trading up 17 Points

E-Mini Dow Futures are trading up 162 Points

Lets look at the charts:

As can be seen, both indexes “gapped up” (a concept explained in my last post on this site), indicating strength and bullishness.   Most successful traders believe a “Gap Up” requires the establishment of a long position/buying shares.

Tonight’s activity is likely associated to the news that Larry Summers has withdrawn his name for consideration to be Ben Bernanke’s replacement.  As always, the market itself ultimately serves as the signal for our trading moves, not outside news or trying to crystal ball / predict the market.  

Most of my subscribers should already be “in position” in the S-Fund and/or I-Fund due to my opinions regarding bullish/positive behavior in the indexes, discussed in depth on this website.  If Monday 09-16-2013 stock market activity behaves like tonight’s futures, then those who are “in position” will benefit greatly.

Thank you for reading and let’s see how this week turns out.   I am very optimistic.  As always, if you find www.thefedtrader.com a useful and informative website, please share it with your colleagues and coworkers.  Good Night.

– Bill Pritchard

Hello everyone

To say that the last couple of weeks in the markets have been interesting, is an understatement.   Like most of us, I am glad that August is behind us, leaving us with September as the worst performing month on a historical basis, for market performance.   In plain English, of all the months in the year, stocks do the worst in September.  October is the last of the “bad months” however October also has the reputation of being a month where many new bull markets have started. Coupled with September’s reputation, is the Syria crisis and ongoing concerns over Quantitative Easing (QE) tapering.   Lets talk about some of this stuff.   Before I proceed, allow me to state that I am still 100% S-Fund.

As some of you may recall, in my August 27 post, I discussed how the markets respond to war.  In almost all cases, over history, the markets have entered an UPTREND once bombs get dropped and war is “declared.’”   It should be noted that even on 9-11-2001, the markets went UP after that tragic day.   They then entered a new downtrend, in 2002, due to other reasons not related to the 9-11 attacks.

One thing that I have observed, in the course of trading for the last 20 years, is that markets definitely do not like uncertainty or lack of clarity on important issues.  Whether it be war, economic policy, the outcome of a presidential election, etc., markets do NOT like wishy-washy or uncertain energy in the air.   Once a “stance” is made or a topic becomes more clear, the markets in almost all cases will respond immediately.   Recently, President Obama made public his position regarding Syria, and the markets reacted to this and went up, once the leader of the most powerful nation in the world made his position known.   While the politics and debates regarding the position itself have been argued, the fact that a position was established is what the markets responded to.  And the markets continue to respond to potential progress, facilitated by Russia, a country which is reacting due to the established position expressed by President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry.

Lets take a look at the charts of the SP 500 Index, and how the index performed in relation to its 50-day, 75-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages.   These are moving trend lines that I use as one component of my trading system, to identify turning points and red flags, and determine trend direction.  Recall that while I consider news and economic reports to be important, the ultimate trigger for market decisions is the market itself.

On today’s date, 09-10-13, the SP 500 index traded higher on above average volume, resulting in a “gap day.”   A Gap Day is when that day’s low price, is higher than the previous day’s high price, resulting in a “gap” when displayed on a chart.   Gap-Up-Days are a very reliable bullish indicator and in almost all cases, require the trader to establish a long/buy condition.  The larger the gap, the stronger the move. Gap-Up-Days are signs of strength.  See charts:

50/75/100-Day EMA Charts are below…last chart is a close-up view with comments:

Regarding QE tapering,  it has been said that “good news is now bad news” and “bad news is really good news.”   What does this mean?   First, lets reflect on my previously discussed example of the US economy being a recovering hospital patient, and life support (QE) is no longer needed, due to the patient’s improved health.   The doctors have decided that the patient needs to breathe on his own, and it is time to disconnect life support.   With that concept in mind (and if CNBC starts to use it, you heard it on The Fed Trader first…) , good news that the economy is recovering is “bad news” because it increases the chances that QE will be tapered.   Which, nobody wants, because the QE stimulant drugs are something we are all addicted to.   So its better to have “bad news’” (poor jobs reports, poor economic news, etc.) as this means QE will likely remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.   Clear as mud ?  Does this make any sense ? (no).     But that is what is happening, period, the end.  It is not any more complicated than that.  Just don’t tell the college professors who have authored white papers on the topic or the studies showing bond prices and treasury yields and how they will determine the market’s reaction to QE tapering.   I mean, lets not make this hard folks.   1.  QE exists.  2.  QE will go away at an unknown date.  3.  The market WILL react.  4.  Responding to the market, not trying to predict it, is what we need to focus on.

For a refresher on not overcomplicating things and not trying to over analyze events, see my March 31 post on this site.   A few college professors might take a look at it, which could be titled “You don’t need to be a meteorologist to know when to use an umbrella.”

Based on my observations associated to the charts and other indicators, I believe the markets have resumed their uptrend.  My friends at Investors Business Daily newspaper announced this yesterday, on 09-09-13, but allow me to pat myself on the back and state that I was ahead of them already and never left the S-Fund.  My opinion was the uptrend never really stopped, just had some struggles in August.   At the present time, the I-Fund has outperformed the S-Fund based on a two-week “look back” basis, and may possibly continue to outperform the S-Fund.   Due to some global turbulence, I prefer to be in S-Fund for now, but if you can tolerate some volatility, my opinion is that 50% I-Fund and 50% S-Fund would be a good combination.    Me personally, I am still 100% S-Fund.

Please note that we have the rest of September to drive thru, then October, before the “worst market months” label no longer applies.   In other words, expect some turbulence and speed bumps in the road until we clear October.   With that said, any signs of life and new uptrends established in the worst market months, are great news, and I can only imagine how the markets will do once we get past October.

As always, THANK YOU for reading, and please share this site with your coworkers and colleagues.   Thanks again

– Bill P.

http://www.thefedtrader.com/

I wanted to update everyone that Mr. Dan Jamison has released an updated FERS Guide, edition 7.3, released on August 19, 2013.   Every federal employee should have a copy.   If you need retirement or benefits information, he is the “go-to guy” for that.

I feel fortunate to be able to reach out to Dan, to answer benefits questions that sometimes come across my desk.  I am also proud of the fact that my site, The Fed Trader , is mentioned in the FERS Guide.

Dan will present a 90-minute session at the 2013 FLEOA National Convention, in case anyone wants to meet him.  All material in the FERS Guide is written and produced entirely by Dan.   Please use the “FERS Guide” page on this site to locate the recent editions.   Thank You.

– Bill Pritchard